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2015—2050年中国人口老龄化趋势与老年人口预测

The Aging Trend of Chinese Population and the Prediction of Aging Population in 2015-2050

【作者】 陈艳玫刘子锋李贤德黄奕祥

【Author】 CHEN Yanmei;LIU Zifeng;HUANG Yixiang;School of Public Health,Sun Yat-Sen University;

【通讯作者】 黄奕祥;

【机构】 中山大学公共卫生学院中山大学光华口腔医学院中山大学卫生发展研究中心

【摘要】 目的预测2015—2050年中国人口老龄化趋势与老年人口数。方法以1994—2010年我国年龄别、性别死亡率数据构建ARIMA预测模型,预测2011—2050年间我国年龄别、性别死亡率,根据公式得到2015—2050年每5年年龄别、性别存活率预测值,据此再利用2010年全国第6次人口普查数据构建人口年龄移算模型,预测出2015—2050年间中国分年龄、分性别的老年人口数。结果 2015—2050年,我国老年人口总量呈递增趋势,其中2020—2030年期间的增长速度最快,为老龄化高速发展期;年龄段越高,女性老年人口占比越高;80岁及以上高龄老年人在老年人口总量中的比重逐年增加且增速加快。结论政府和社会各界都必须积极应对人口老龄化,提早制定相应的老年人保障对策,以应对老年人口在健康需求和医疗服务等各方面的需求,构建养老、孝老、敬老政策体系和社会环境,推进医养结合工程。

【Abstract】 Objective To predict the aging trend and the number of elderly population in China from 2015 to 2050 Methods Based on the age and sex mortality data of our country for 1994-2010,the ARIMA model was constructed to predict the age and sex mortality in China for 2011-2050.According to the formula,the prediction values of age and sex survival rate for every 5 years were obtained for 2015-2050,and then the population age shift model was constructed by the national census data of the sixth population in 2010.It predicts the number of elderly people of different age and sex in 2015-2050.Results The results showed that in 2015-2050,the total population of the elderly was increasing in China,in which the growth rate of the 2020-2030 year was the fastest.The higher the age group is,the higher the proportion of women in the elderly population.The proportion of the aged 80 years and older in the total population increased year by year and accelerated.Conclusion The government and all sectors of the society must actively respond to the aging of the population and formulate corresponding countermeasures for the elderly to meet the needs of the elderly population in all aspects of health needs and medical services,to build a system of pension,filial piety,respecting the old and the social environment,and to promote the integration of medical support projects.

【关键词】 人口老龄化; ARIMA模型; 年龄移算模型; 中国老年人口; 预测;

【Key words】 Aging of population; ARIMA model; Age shift model; China’s elderly population; Prediction;

【分类号】R195;R-054;R363.273;

【基金】 广东省科技计划软科学项目(2016A070705025)

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