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突发事件网络舆情风险评价方法及应用

The Evaluation Method and Application of Unexpected Events Network Public Opinion

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【作者】 黄星刘樑

【Author】 HUANG Xing;LIU Liang;School of Economics and Management, Southwest University of Institute and Technology;

【机构】 西南科技大学经济管理学院

【摘要】 【目的/意义】构建有效的突发事件网络舆情风险预警指标体系和评价方法,是应急决策机构有效控制舆情风险和科学应对突发事件的重要依据。【方法/过程】通过理论分析、文献调查和统计分析方法,从突发事件作用力、网络媒体作用力及网民作用力3个维度提出10个评价指标。采用加速遗传算法(AGA)对传统投影寻踪(PP)模型进行改进,提出了基于加速遗传算法与投影寻踪(AGA-PP)相结合的突发事件网络舆情风险预警模型。【结果/结论】与传统PP模型相比,本文模型简化了投影寻踪实现过程,克服了传统投影寻踪方法计算的复杂、编程实现困难的缺点,为突发事件网络舆情风险预警的广泛应用提供了有效方法。

【Abstract】 【Purpose/significance】Constructing an effective early-warning index system and evaluation method for public opinion risk of unexpected events is an important basis for emergency decision-making institutions to effectively control the risk of public opinion and to deal with emergencies scientifically.【Method/process】Through the theoretical analysis, literature investigation and statistical analysis, this paper puts forward 10 evaluation indexes from 3 dimensions. An accelerated genetic algorithm(AGA) is used to improve the traditional projection pursuit(PP) model,the paper proposes the risk level evaluation model based on accelerated genetic algorithm and projection tracing(AGA-PP).【Result/conclusion】The model can overcome some drawbacks of tradition projection pursuit method to the complex calculation and the difficulties of programming design. The evaluation model can be generalized to practice.

【关键词】 突发事件网络舆情; 风险预警; AGA-PP;

【Key words】 unexpected events network public opinion; risk early-warning; AGA-PP;

【基金】 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71601042);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(16YJC630040);四川信息管理与服务研究中心重点项目(SCTQ2016ZD02)

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